Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 20.766318 22.651368 24.744550 27.264761 30.249459 33.714593 38.108049
2024-12-29 17.931857 20.389699 23.328456 27.185232 32.251826 38.904676 48.739064
2025-01-05 16.031564 18.774113 22.235028 27.090211 34.041568 44.245894 61.878953
2025-01-12 14.482880 17.315048 21.029972 26.508473 34.906105 48.466494 75.673712
2025-01-19 13.839777 16.908604 21.103462 27.642389 38.498898 58.276803 107.507165
2025-01-26 12.930243 16.019873 20.358973 27.382213 39.726388 64.401991 138.849366
2025-02-02 12.266420 15.394110 19.898671 27.457055 41.517567 72.548826 191.514578
2025-02-09 11.743067 14.911734 19.582929 27.693671 43.652711 82.782542 287.415334
2025-02-16 11.252606 14.430406 19.208368 27.753977 45.439427 93.452495 463.188072
2025-02-23 10.743491 13.879993 18.666936 27.427034 46.302281 102.202544 775.986353
2025-03-02 10.361054 13.491605 18.346510 27.455282 47.989853 115.498268 2032.997005
2025-03-09 9.971870 13.065998 17.926055 27.230790 49.014809 127.657842 17137.890531
2025-03-16 9.598810 12.649364 17.497819 26.957971 49.925743 141.230218 NaN
2025-03-23 9.264851 12.275488 17.114439 26.730067 50.929401 157.488223 NaN
2025-03-30 8.970826 11.948354 16.786626 26.575762 52.124533 177.932974 NaN
2025-04-06 8.633450 11.534942 16.280559 25.987437 51.896959 189.253164 NaN
2025-04-13 8.569265 11.556145 16.538064 27.072371 57.251369 265.163837 NaN
2025-04-20 8.319896 11.262350 16.209686 26.816535 58.145490 304.075508 NaN
2025-04-27 8.131687 11.059992 16.033639 26.886855 60.250937 377.619662 NaN
2025-05-04 7.975880 10.903520 15.930646 27.114411 63.078841 504.348317 NaN
2025-05-11 7.808661 10.720059 15.764929 27.172262 65.319006 676.791558 NaN
2025-05-18 7.607107 10.470436 15.459867 26.856588 65.928352 832.382613 NaN
2025-05-25 7.456976 10.301974 15.299549 26.883795 68.092765 1235.950748 NaN